Live win probability for every Blast match, from the group stage to Finals Day at Edgbaston, with a scoring record for each county ground behind every reading.
Eighteen first-class counties in two groups of nine. Each county plays fourteen group matches; the top four in each group reach the quarter-finals, and the four winners meet at Edgbaston on Finals Day — two semi-finals and a final inside a single day, which is the most compressed schedule in English cricket and the reason Finals Day form so rarely follows group form.
| North Group | South Group |
|---|---|
| Derbyshire | Essex |
| Durham | Glamorgan |
| Lancashire | Gloucestershire |
| Leicestershire | Hampshire |
| Northamptonshire | Kent |
| Nottinghamshire | Middlesex |
| Warwickshire | Somerset |
| Worcestershire | Surrey |
| Yorkshire | Sussex |
The Blast is played across more distinct venues than any other T20 competition, and they do not behave alike. Here is what 10 of them have actually produced across 85 recorded matches, highest-scoring first.
| Ground | Matches | 1st inns avg | 2nd inns avg | Runs per over |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| County Ground, Bristol | 6 | 187.7 | 167.2 | 8.87 |
| Edgbaston, Birmingham | 6 | 162.3 | 145.5 | 7.7 |
| The Rose Bowl, Southampton | 10 | 160.1 | 143.1 | 7.58 |
| Trent Bridge, Nottingham | 12 | 153.6 | 134.0 | 7.19 |
| The Oval, London | 17 | 151.6 | 135.2 | 7.18 |
| Old Trafford, Manchester | 11 | 151.0 | 127.2 | 6.98 |
| Sophia Gardens, Cardiff | 7 | 144.3 | 142.3 | 7.16 |
| County Ground, Chelmsford | 5 | 139.2 | 128.6 | 6.7 |
| Riverside Ground, Chester-le-Street | 5 | 130.2 | 121.2 | 6.29 |
| County Ground, Hove | 6 | 125.3 | 94.8 | 5.5 |
The spread is the point. County Ground, Bristol averages 187.7 in the first innings; County Ground, Hove averages 125.3. That is a 62-run gap between two grounds in the same competition, so a chase that is comfortably ahead of par at one is well behind it at the other.
The second column worth reading is the gap between first and second innings averages. At County Ground, Hove it is 30.5 runs — the widest here, and a real toss advantage. At Sophia Gardens, Cardiff it is only 2.0, which is a ground where batting first buys almost nothing.
Every prediction is anchored to that ground's own record rather than a competition average — 335 tracked venues in total.
81.5% across 19,340 predictions on 2,546 matches the model never saw in training, with the full calibration table published on the accuracy page. Early readings are worth less than late ones and the table says so.
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