AI Prediction · The Hundred 2026
Manchester Super Giants vs Welsh Fire — The Hundred 2026 Prediction
Live, ball-by-ball win probability for MAN SG vs WEL FIR. Score projections, next-phase run
forecasts and a live read on how the pitch is actually playing. Free, no sign-up.
MAN SG
Manchester Super GiantsPRE-MATCH MODEL VIEW
51% vs 49%
Updates every ball once play starts
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Chasing costs more at Old Trafford than at Sophia Gardens — 23.8 runs against 2.0
Across the T20 cricket we hold ball-by-ball data for at these two grounds, sides batting first at
Old Trafford average 151.0 and sides chasing average
127.2 — a 23.8-run gap, one of the hardest grounds on this list to chase at. At
Sophia Gardens the same gap is 2.0 runs
(144.3 batting first, 142.3 chasing), one of the few grounds where chasing costs a side almost nothing.
Old Trafford scores at 6.983 an over overall against
7.164 at Sophia Gardens. The chase at Old Trafford is at its worst through
overs 17-20, where it manages just 4.175 an over and loses
1.0 wickets; a first innings there peaks at
7.818 in overs 9-12.
What that means for this fixture: the toss is worth more at Old Trafford than at
Sophia Gardens, and a chase there that loses an early wicket is in more trouble than the scoreboard
suggests. At Sophia Gardens a side batting second has more room to absorb one.
Small samples — 11 matches at
Old Trafford, 7 at Sophia Gardens — and drawn from T20 fixtures at
those grounds rather than from The Hundred, whose innings is 20 balls shorter. Read them as ground character,
not as a forecast. The live model does not use these averages at all: once a ball is bowled it works from the
actual over-by-over run and wicket pattern.
Team analysis
Manchester Super Giants
Old Trafford, Manchester · 11 T20s on record
Batting first: 151.0 avg · Chasing: 127.2 avg
Scoring rate: 6.983 an over
Chase low point: overs 17-20 at 4.175 an over, 1.0 wickets
Welsh Fire
Sophia Gardens, Cardiff · 7 T20s on record
Batting first: 144.3 avg · Chasing: 142.3 avg
Scoring rate: 7.164 an over
Chase low point: overs 5-8 at 6.571 an over, 0.714 wickets
How we predict
Live data — ball-by-ball updates feed the model throughout the match.
Venue intelligence — 335 tracked venues, each with its own scoring profile.
Measured accuracy — 81.5% win-probability accuracy on a true holdout: trained on 2017-2024 data
only, then tested against 2,546 matches from 2025-2026 the model had never seen.
MAN SG vs WEL FIR — FAQs
Who will win Manchester Super Giants vs Welsh Fire?
We do not publish a pre-match favourite, because we have nothing to base one on that you could check. Our model is a live model: it produces nothing useful until a ball is bowled, and then recalculates after every one from the score, wickets in hand, required rate and how the pitch is actually playing. What the ground record does say is that the toss matters more at Old Trafford, where sides batting first average 151.0 and chasing sides 127.2 across 11 recorded T20s — a 23.8-run gap, against 2.0 at Sophia Gardens.
Is it harder to chase at Old Trafford or Sophia Gardens?
Old Trafford, on this data. The gap between batting first and chasing there is 23.8 runs against 2.0 at Sophia Gardens. A chase at Old Trafford is at its worst through overs 17-20, scoring 4.175 an over and losing 1.0 wickets.
Where is Manchester Super Giants vs Welsh Fire played?
Manchester Super Giants play home matches at Old Trafford, Manchester; Welsh Fire play at Sophia Gardens, Cardiff. Old Trafford scores at 6.983 an over and Sophia Gardens at 7.164. Both figures come from T20 fixtures at those grounds — 11 and 7 matches respectively — not from The Hundred, whose innings is 20 balls shorter.
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