AI Prediction · The Hundred 2026
Birmingham Phoenix vs Welsh Fire — The Hundred 2026 Prediction
Live, ball-by-ball win probability for BIR PHX vs WEL FIR. Score projections, next-phase run
forecasts and a live read on how the pitch is actually playing. Free, no sign-up.
BIR PHX
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Chasing costs more at Edgbaston than at Sophia Gardens — 16.8 runs against 2.0
Across the T20 cricket we hold ball-by-ball data for at these two grounds, sides batting first at
Edgbaston average 162.3 and sides chasing average
145.5 — a 16.8-run gap, a clear edge to batting first. At
Sophia Gardens the same gap is 2.0 runs
(144.3 batting first, 142.3 chasing), one of the few grounds where chasing costs a side almost nothing.
Edgbaston scores at 7.696 an over overall against
7.164 at Sophia Gardens. The chase at Edgbaston is at its worst through
overs 17-20, where it manages just 6.042 an over and loses
2.833 wickets; a first innings there peaks at
9.083 in overs 9-12.
What that means for this fixture: the toss is worth more at Edgbaston than at
Sophia Gardens, and a chase there that loses an early wicket is in more trouble than the scoreboard
suggests. At Sophia Gardens a side batting second has more room to absorb one.
Small samples — 6 matches at
Edgbaston, 7 at Sophia Gardens — and drawn from T20 fixtures at
those grounds rather than from The Hundred, whose innings is 20 balls shorter. Read them as ground character,
not as a forecast. The live model does not use these averages at all: once a ball is bowled it works from the
actual over-by-over run and wicket pattern.
Team analysis
Birmingham Phoenix
Edgbaston, Birmingham · 6 T20s on record
Batting first: 162.3 avg · Chasing: 145.5 avg
Scoring rate: 7.696 an over
Chase low point: overs 17-20 at 6.042 an over, 2.833 wickets
Welsh Fire
Sophia Gardens, Cardiff · 7 T20s on record
Batting first: 144.3 avg · Chasing: 142.3 avg
Scoring rate: 7.164 an over
Chase low point: overs 5-8 at 6.571 an over, 0.714 wickets
How we predict
Live data — ball-by-ball updates feed the model throughout the match.
Venue intelligence — 335 tracked venues, each with its own scoring profile.
Measured accuracy — 81.5% win-probability accuracy on a true holdout: trained on 2017-2024 data
only, then tested against 2,546 matches from 2025-2026 the model had never seen.
BIR PHX vs WEL FIR — FAQs
Who will win Birmingham Phoenix vs Welsh Fire?
We do not publish a pre-match favourite, because we have nothing to base one on that you could check. Our model is a live model: it produces nothing useful until a ball is bowled, and then recalculates after every one from the score, wickets in hand, required rate and how the pitch is actually playing. What the ground record does say is that the toss matters more at Edgbaston, where sides batting first average 162.3 and chasing sides 145.5 across 6 recorded T20s — a 16.8-run gap, against 2.0 at Sophia Gardens.
Is it harder to chase at Edgbaston or Sophia Gardens?
Edgbaston, on this data. The gap between batting first and chasing there is 16.8 runs against 2.0 at Sophia Gardens. A chase at Edgbaston is at its worst through overs 17-20, scoring 6.042 an over and losing 2.833 wickets.
Where is Birmingham Phoenix vs Welsh Fire played?
Birmingham Phoenix play home matches at Edgbaston, Birmingham; Welsh Fire play at Sophia Gardens, Cardiff. Edgbaston scores at 7.696 an over and Sophia Gardens at 7.164. Both figures come from T20 fixtures at those grounds — 6 and 7 matches respectively — not from The Hundred, whose innings is 20 balls shorter.
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