AI Prediction · The Hundred 2026
Birmingham Phoenix vs Trent Rockets — The Hundred 2026 Prediction
Live, ball-by-ball win probability for BIR PHX vs TRT RKT. Score projections, next-phase run
forecasts and a live read on how the pitch is actually playing. Free, no sign-up.
BIR PHX
Birmingham PhoenixPRE-MATCH MODEL VIEW
49% vs 51%
Updates every ball once play starts
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Chasing costs more at Trent Bridge than at Edgbaston — 19.6 runs against 16.8
Across the T20 cricket we hold ball-by-ball data for at these two grounds, sides batting first at
Trent Bridge average 153.6 and sides chasing average
134.0 — a 19.6-run gap, a clear edge to batting first. At
Edgbaston the same gap is 16.8 runs
(162.3 batting first, 145.5 chasing), a clear edge to batting first.
Trent Bridge scores at 7.19 an over overall against
7.696 at Edgbaston. The chase at Trent Bridge is at its worst through
overs 9-12, where it manages just 5.75 an over and loses
1.25 wickets; a first innings there peaks at
9.583 in overs 17-20.
What that means for this fixture: the toss is worth more at Trent Bridge than at
Edgbaston, and a chase there that loses an early wicket is in more trouble than the scoreboard
suggests. At Edgbaston a side batting second has more room to absorb one.
Small samples — 12 matches at
Trent Bridge, 6 at Edgbaston — and drawn from T20 fixtures at
those grounds rather than from The Hundred, whose innings is 20 balls shorter. Read them as ground character,
not as a forecast. The live model does not use these averages at all: once a ball is bowled it works from the
actual over-by-over run and wicket pattern.
Team analysis
Birmingham Phoenix
Edgbaston, Birmingham · 6 T20s on record
Batting first: 162.3 avg · Chasing: 145.5 avg
Scoring rate: 7.696 an over
Chase low point: overs 17-20 at 6.042 an over, 2.833 wickets
Trent Rockets
Trent Bridge, Nottingham · 12 T20s on record
Batting first: 153.6 avg · Chasing: 134.0 avg
Scoring rate: 7.19 an over
Chase low point: overs 9-12 at 5.75 an over, 1.25 wickets
How we predict
Live data — ball-by-ball updates feed the model throughout the match.
Venue intelligence — 335 tracked venues, each with its own scoring profile.
Measured accuracy — 81.5% win-probability accuracy on a true holdout: trained on 2017-2024 data
only, then tested against 2,546 matches from 2025-2026 the model had never seen.
BIR PHX vs TRT RKT — FAQs
Who will win Birmingham Phoenix vs Trent Rockets?
We do not publish a pre-match favourite, because we have nothing to base one on that you could check. Our model is a live model: it produces nothing useful until a ball is bowled, and then recalculates after every one from the score, wickets in hand, required rate and how the pitch is actually playing. What the ground record does say is that the toss matters more at Trent Bridge, where sides batting first average 153.6 and chasing sides 134.0 across 12 recorded T20s — a 19.6-run gap, against 16.8 at Edgbaston.
Is it harder to chase at Trent Bridge or Edgbaston?
Trent Bridge, on this data. The gap between batting first and chasing there is 19.6 runs against 16.8 at Edgbaston. A chase at Trent Bridge is at its worst through overs 9-12, scoring 5.75 an over and losing 1.25 wickets.
Where is Birmingham Phoenix vs Trent Rockets played?
Birmingham Phoenix play home matches at Edgbaston, Birmingham; Trent Rockets play at Trent Bridge, Nottingham. Edgbaston scores at 7.696 an over and Trent Bridge at 7.19. Both figures come from T20 fixtures at those grounds — 6 and 12 matches respectively — not from The Hundred, whose innings is 20 balls shorter.
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