AI Prediction · The Hundred 2026
Birmingham Phoenix vs London Spirit — The Hundred 2026 Prediction
Live, ball-by-ball win probability for BIR PHX vs LON SPR. Score projections, next-phase run
forecasts and a live read on how the pitch is actually playing. Free, no sign-up.
BIR PHX
Birmingham PhoenixPRE-MATCH MODEL VIEW
50% vs 50%
Updates every ball once play starts
🏏 See Live BIR PHX vs LON SPR Prediction →
Chasing costs more at Lord's than at Edgbaston — 21.9 runs against 16.8
Across the T20 cricket we hold ball-by-ball data for at these two grounds, sides batting first at
Lord's average 157.6 and sides chasing average
135.7 — a 21.9-run gap, one of the hardest grounds on this list to chase at. At
Edgbaston the same gap is 16.8 runs
(162.3 batting first, 145.5 chasing), a clear edge to batting first.
Lord's scores at 7.361 an over overall against
7.696 at Edgbaston. The chase at Lord's is at its worst through
overs 5-8, where it manages just 6.028 an over and loses
0.667 wickets; a first innings there peaks at
8.975 in overs 17-20.
What that means for this fixture: the toss is worth more at Lord's than at
Edgbaston, and a chase there that loses an early wicket is in more trouble than the scoreboard
suggests. At Edgbaston a side batting second has more room to absorb one.
Small samples — 10 matches at
Lord's, 6 at Edgbaston — and drawn from T20 fixtures at
those grounds rather than from The Hundred, whose innings is 20 balls shorter. Read them as ground character,
not as a forecast. The live model does not use these averages at all: once a ball is bowled it works from the
actual over-by-over run and wicket pattern.
Team analysis
Birmingham Phoenix
Edgbaston, Birmingham · 6 T20s on record
Batting first: 162.3 avg · Chasing: 145.5 avg
Scoring rate: 7.696 an over
Chase low point: overs 17-20 at 6.042 an over, 2.833 wickets
London Spirit
Lord's, London · 10 T20s on record
Batting first: 157.6 avg · Chasing: 135.7 avg
Scoring rate: 7.361 an over
Chase low point: overs 5-8 at 6.028 an over, 0.667 wickets
How we predict
Live data — ball-by-ball updates feed the model throughout the match.
Venue intelligence — 335 tracked venues, each with its own scoring profile.
Measured accuracy — 81.5% win-probability accuracy on a true holdout: trained on 2017-2024 data
only, then tested against 2,546 matches from 2025-2026 the model had never seen.
BIR PHX vs LON SPR — FAQs
Who will win Birmingham Phoenix vs London Spirit?
We do not publish a pre-match favourite, because we have nothing to base one on that you could check. Our model is a live model: it produces nothing useful until a ball is bowled, and then recalculates after every one from the score, wickets in hand, required rate and how the pitch is actually playing. What the ground record does say is that the toss matters more at Lord's, where sides batting first average 157.6 and chasing sides 135.7 across 10 recorded T20s — a 21.9-run gap, against 16.8 at Edgbaston.
Is it harder to chase at Lord's or Edgbaston?
Lord's, on this data. The gap between batting first and chasing there is 21.9 runs against 16.8 at Edgbaston. A chase at Lord's is at its worst through overs 5-8, scoring 6.028 an over and losing 0.667 wickets.
Where is Birmingham Phoenix vs London Spirit played?
Birmingham Phoenix play home matches at Edgbaston, Birmingham; London Spirit play at Lord's, London. Edgbaston scores at 7.696 an over and Lord's at 7.361. Both figures come from T20 fixtures at those grounds — 6 and 10 matches respectively — not from The Hundred, whose innings is 20 balls shorter.
Is it free?
Yes. Live win probability, score projections and next-phase run forecasts are free, with no sign-up.
Watch the probability move, ball by ball
Free during every Hundred match. No account needed.
🏏 Open Live Predictions